2016 was harsh. Many studios closed. Some hit games didn't sell. But overall the industry grew as always. Superdata claims we nearly reached $100b in 2016.
Meanwhile China became the largest gaming market of the world thanks to mobile. Talking mobile: it is now the largest segment of our industry. As forecasted by so many.
From my experience and point of view 2017 will be a hard year. In fact it will be more difficult than this year. For various reasons.
First some AAA IP's won't sell as good as they were, as already shown in 2016. The primary reasons are that gamers spend more time in less games and the competition in terms of price. f2p taking over even more market share does further impact the $60 AAA game market.
And of course mobile. Mobile will continue to grow. We will see new games entering the top 10 which do more and more revenue each year. The PC won't suffer, the consoles neither, but their growth will slow down. Nothing major but it will have an impact on studios relying on the old publisher model - meaning more studios will cease to exist.
We also will see a more dramatic impact on the crowded market space. Too many titles, not enough time to play them all. Remember? We will spend more time in less games. So the only way combating this is to bind your fanbase to your game - this means you must update your game and service it beyond its lifecycle. Games as a service. Invented by MMO RPG's now a must have for all games.
Update: read this:
http://steamed.kotaku.com/none-of-2016s-most-played-steam-games-came-out-in-2016-1791048654
We will see an invasion of non gaming IP's to the mobile space as the desperate publishers try to fight high acquisition costs with using foreign IP's. This won't work for most of them as we have so often experienced in the past: the 80's, 90's, 2000's all had those waves and most publishers failed with them unless they can afford the mega IP's - which they can't. If they afford it they won't have enough money left for the game - meaning they ship shitty games on large IP's - failing. We have seen that as well in the past.
VR will continue to be a toy - not a market (yet). So investors will shy away, studios will close. VR will be in a crisis waiting to be revived.
The Switch will ship and sell ok. Nintendo's IPs will be strong, and depending on Nintendos policy to sign up other developers the console will not rival the PS4 or XBox, it will rival Nintendo's old 3DS system, cutting their own market share.
Consoles will drop in price for Christmas 2017 and for the first time go under $199 - embracing new markets. But those new customers won't buy $60+ software, they will buy already discounted or used software - as we have seen in the past when that happens. Still the market will grow and reach its peak - and drop after that staring 2018.
We will see a new creative push from the III side. What is III? Triple Indie, from pro's who left AAA companies and going independent we will see a wave of really good titles created for lower budgets and selling enough to keep those new studios alive.
This means we see a remix of studios. Old ones go, new ones come - and in large numbers. We need to learn all those new studio names otherwise we lose track - so many will be there. All over the world.
Showing posts with label console. Show all posts
Showing posts with label console. Show all posts
2016/12/28
2016/11/15
Internet - and Games
I remember accessing the internet before the internet was born. With dial up modems. BBS they called those and you could type with other members and access files. Most BBS had a limit of people to access it at once. Like 8 on luxurious BBS's.
Today we speed around with 100MBs and complain when the internet slows down. But we are spoiled children. Broadband users represent less than 8% of the internet population. We just get the wrong picture as we usually have friends who are nerds like we are.
Visiting other countries, or your country side, will teach you a lesson. When I visit my parents in southern Germany I always roll my eyes due to their internet. But they can't change it. No one is able to give them more than like 5MBit although they are near the Telekom research center where they test out the latest internet tech. Wtf?
Now look at our games. PS4 downloads of 50GB are normal now. PC games easily beat the 50GB barrier and you have a 9GB first day patch (hi Dishonored 2!). Thats not fun for people like my father ain't it.
And as we game developers are spoiled we really don't care. We don't see the problem. Publishers aren't interested either, as they say you already gave them your money when you start the download. So why care? Fuck them. Same applies to platforms like Steam. But most Steam users are core users right? Well, not really.
So many of these people walk into stores to buy the Disc. Yes, these round things still exist. They walk home and wait for hours, maybe even switching Discs every couple of hours as the drives are even slower than your internet speed. And then surprise. 10GB first day patch. Oh my.
Some time ago a company approached me to help them accessing my network as they have the coolest tech for large games. It allows playing the game minutes after you started the download. Yes, we all heard about it, and its not the streaming (which is dead). Its a downloader. I was skeptical. Why do I need it? I didn't. But my father would. OR anyone else with slow internet access loving games.
Meanwhile I am on their advisory board as their tech fully got me excited. It is a real download. No installation of strange drivers necessary. No change on the code of the game, so less friction implementing the technology. Coolest of the coolest. Get this. It starts Witcher 3 fully playable after 5 minutes on a 24MBit line. 5 MINUTES.
Players we show it love it. Developers love it. Publishers don't care. WTF? Wake up AAA publishers, there are millions of customers waiting for something like this. Check it out yourself.
This sounds like a self promotion. It isn't. It is a rant about the ignorance of the game industry about their customers.
Today we speed around with 100MBs and complain when the internet slows down. But we are spoiled children. Broadband users represent less than 8% of the internet population. We just get the wrong picture as we usually have friends who are nerds like we are.
Visiting other countries, or your country side, will teach you a lesson. When I visit my parents in southern Germany I always roll my eyes due to their internet. But they can't change it. No one is able to give them more than like 5MBit although they are near the Telekom research center where they test out the latest internet tech. Wtf?
Now look at our games. PS4 downloads of 50GB are normal now. PC games easily beat the 50GB barrier and you have a 9GB first day patch (hi Dishonored 2!). Thats not fun for people like my father ain't it.
And as we game developers are spoiled we really don't care. We don't see the problem. Publishers aren't interested either, as they say you already gave them your money when you start the download. So why care? Fuck them. Same applies to platforms like Steam. But most Steam users are core users right? Well, not really.
So many of these people walk into stores to buy the Disc. Yes, these round things still exist. They walk home and wait for hours, maybe even switching Discs every couple of hours as the drives are even slower than your internet speed. And then surprise. 10GB first day patch. Oh my.
Some time ago a company approached me to help them accessing my network as they have the coolest tech for large games. It allows playing the game minutes after you started the download. Yes, we all heard about it, and its not the streaming (which is dead). Its a downloader. I was skeptical. Why do I need it? I didn't. But my father would. OR anyone else with slow internet access loving games.
Meanwhile I am on their advisory board as their tech fully got me excited. It is a real download. No installation of strange drivers necessary. No change on the code of the game, so less friction implementing the technology. Coolest of the coolest. Get this. It starts Witcher 3 fully playable after 5 minutes on a 24MBit line. 5 MINUTES.
Players we show it love it. Developers love it. Publishers don't care. WTF? Wake up AAA publishers, there are millions of customers waiting for something like this. Check it out yourself.
This sounds like a self promotion. It isn't. It is a rant about the ignorance of the game industry about their customers.
2014/11/23
F2p reached its limits?
The ceo of SuperData research claimed that f2p reached its limits:
http://www.screwattack.com/news/superdata-ceo-says-free-play-popularity-decline
I tend to disagree. Some reasons here.
First there is a lot of talk about families and kids. If you ask big f2p games about their audience then you will notice that families and kids are not their audience. In fact most f2p games have a pretty mature audience. PvP games tend to address 90% males 16-25 years old while MMO RPG's and strategy games have an average age beyond 30, some of them even 35+.
F2p is not for kids. Do not try to target kids with f2p games as it won't work revenue wise. Kids are to a large extend non payers and that has obvious reasons (no access to payment systems). And believe me or not: this is good.
The talk also claims LoL has a 11% worldwide market share. Having $681 million yearly revenue thus us hard to believe. I can name 10 games who have more revenue, some even double than LoL. Add all the medium and smaller ones then LoL can't even reach 3% worldwide market share.
Most companies analyzing the f2p market fail to notice that older good f2p games are still around with a healthy audience and revenue. If you check just the genre MMO RPG's: there is an endless number of games available and every week more are coming to the list. Most of these games you never heard of.
Furthermore the analysts underestimate the mobile f2p market. As most of you should know most revenue of App Appstores on mobile are coming from f2p games (not apps, not paid apps, just games). Considering that the number of mobile users will double in the next 2 years to 3 billion (and that is a conservative number as the growth is exponential) we soon reach a point where the worlds population own smartphones and control their lives with them. This means the good old and new f2p games on App stores will also double in revenue.
And last but not least: the audience of f2p games is not a fixed amount of people. It is not static. In fact it is a very dynamic group which loses people all the time (no interest anymore, death, job, etc.) and gain many people all the time as new humans are born every minute and come to the age to play on mobile. So no, there will NEVER be a saturation in target audience.
Often analysts make the mistake of taking a sample of a few months as a forecast basis for the future. This is of course a basic approach but fails to take trends into consideration. It also fails as it usually only takes a sample of the market and forgets how large the f2p market really is: it includes mobile, client, browser games and territories like Asia and Japan. And some territories are just not explored yet in f2p and will grow really fast really soon (like India). there you go, 1b people added to the audience.
All in all I tend to disagree for the above reasons. I say that the f2p market will continue to grow and dominate all other business models on most formats so that sadly we might see some type of genres, game types or formats diminish over time simply because it doesn't make sense for companies who invest in games for revenue to go the risky route.
http://www.screwattack.com/news/superdata-ceo-says-free-play-popularity-decline
I tend to disagree. Some reasons here.
First there is a lot of talk about families and kids. If you ask big f2p games about their audience then you will notice that families and kids are not their audience. In fact most f2p games have a pretty mature audience. PvP games tend to address 90% males 16-25 years old while MMO RPG's and strategy games have an average age beyond 30, some of them even 35+.
F2p is not for kids. Do not try to target kids with f2p games as it won't work revenue wise. Kids are to a large extend non payers and that has obvious reasons (no access to payment systems). And believe me or not: this is good.
The talk also claims LoL has a 11% worldwide market share. Having $681 million yearly revenue thus us hard to believe. I can name 10 games who have more revenue, some even double than LoL. Add all the medium and smaller ones then LoL can't even reach 3% worldwide market share.
Most companies analyzing the f2p market fail to notice that older good f2p games are still around with a healthy audience and revenue. If you check just the genre MMO RPG's: there is an endless number of games available and every week more are coming to the list. Most of these games you never heard of.
Furthermore the analysts underestimate the mobile f2p market. As most of you should know most revenue of App Appstores on mobile are coming from f2p games (not apps, not paid apps, just games). Considering that the number of mobile users will double in the next 2 years to 3 billion (and that is a conservative number as the growth is exponential) we soon reach a point where the worlds population own smartphones and control their lives with them. This means the good old and new f2p games on App stores will also double in revenue.
And last but not least: the audience of f2p games is not a fixed amount of people. It is not static. In fact it is a very dynamic group which loses people all the time (no interest anymore, death, job, etc.) and gain many people all the time as new humans are born every minute and come to the age to play on mobile. So no, there will NEVER be a saturation in target audience.
Often analysts make the mistake of taking a sample of a few months as a forecast basis for the future. This is of course a basic approach but fails to take trends into consideration. It also fails as it usually only takes a sample of the market and forgets how large the f2p market really is: it includes mobile, client, browser games and territories like Asia and Japan. And some territories are just not explored yet in f2p and will grow really fast really soon (like India). there you go, 1b people added to the audience.
All in all I tend to disagree for the above reasons. I say that the f2p market will continue to grow and dominate all other business models on most formats so that sadly we might see some type of genres, game types or formats diminish over time simply because it doesn't make sense for companies who invest in games for revenue to go the risky route.
2014/01/25
Never underestimate Nintendo
Well, it happens every console cycle that industry experts want to tell Nintendo what to do. Just check the headlines here:
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/
Thats really funny. If Nintendo would have listened to those experts the last cycle they would have been gone by now. And guess what: which console sold most last gen?
I wrote about this a lot of time, simply use the label Nintendo.
Some rules about Nintendo:
#1: it is a Japanese company, i.e. they think differently
#2: Nintendo has patience. Decades of patience. It is 125 years old ffs
#3: Nintendo is rich. They don't even need to sell consoles to be richer
#4: Nintendo always did their thing. They were wrong before and it didn't hurt (Virtua Boy, Powerglove)
#5: Nintendo isn't and never was for the core gamer. But our industry writes for the core gamer
And this time the internet remembers your articles and I will pull it out and call YOUR NAME with all the crap you experts have written :)
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/
Thats really funny. If Nintendo would have listened to those experts the last cycle they would have been gone by now. And guess what: which console sold most last gen?
I wrote about this a lot of time, simply use the label Nintendo.
Some rules about Nintendo:
#1: it is a Japanese company, i.e. they think differently
#2: Nintendo has patience. Decades of patience. It is 125 years old ffs
#3: Nintendo is rich. They don't even need to sell consoles to be richer
#4: Nintendo always did their thing. They were wrong before and it didn't hurt (Virtua Boy, Powerglove)
#5: Nintendo isn't and never was for the core gamer. But our industry writes for the core gamer
And this time the internet remembers your articles and I will pull it out and call YOUR NAME with all the crap you experts have written :)
2013/12/07
2013/11/07
From another source
I am doing my talk at GDC Next today and in relation to this I would love to share this research done by Benedict Evans which clearly supports my point: A change is coming.
2013/08/29
Gamescom is behind us
Gamescom is exciting for me as I meet all industry friends easily within one location. I rarely go to that show to check out new games as websites do a much better job giving me all information I need (check out HD Titanfall trailers, or Watchdogs, even better, awesome!)
But some players need to wait for hours to peek at a new game for 5 minutes. Wtf. People. Why does Gamescom use that system to filter people (I know age rating). There were 340.000 visitors this year. Awesome record!
But less than 5000 can be jiggled through your lanes waiting for the games presentation, assuming you can get 50 people per 30 minute presentation all day long.
That is a huge price you pay for your booth to get only a fraction of the audience. 1.7%. One point seven! It is time to rethink the game show concept I believe.
But some players need to wait for hours to peek at a new game for 5 minutes. Wtf. People. Why does Gamescom use that system to filter people (I know age rating). There were 340.000 visitors this year. Awesome record!
But less than 5000 can be jiggled through your lanes waiting for the games presentation, assuming you can get 50 people per 30 minute presentation all day long.
That is a huge price you pay for your booth to get only a fraction of the audience. 1.7%. One point seven! It is time to rethink the game show concept I believe.
 |
| Source: http://www.gamezone.de |
2013/07/11
Game burnout
Its strange often. When you work in the games industry you play a lot of games. I mean a LOT. I think I played like 15.000 games in my life. Yes I mean different ones. The effect on this is that most games I play have similar mechanics or features than a game I played before.
This removes an important element of games: surprise & excitement. "This is cool" is missing often which makes me bored about most games. This isn't bad as I can spot the special things inside a game which are great very fast and easy. Generally it takes like 20 minutes and I can tell you how a game is constructed and how it will progress along. That's usually when I stop playing it.
Rarely a game* will bind me for hours, the most recent one was Dishonored. (*I mean single player games, MMO's are different). I started playing Tomb Raider and while it is an excellent game I was bored within minutes. I knew too many things they were doing including their quick time moments (did I tell you I hate the qt moment thingy which seem to be popular?. Don't get me wrong, Tomb Raider is an excellent game, but not for someone who played as much as I did.
So I am on a mission to find that one game which keeps me occupied for hours. Have suggestions? Let me know.
The whole thing is made worse with the fact that I love online games. As soon as I play a single player game I am missing people. Humans - which I can talk to, play with or against. This is so powerful that most single player games have a hard time to compete. I went as far as saying "Single player games will be niche in 5-10 years" in a talk back 2006 I think. Was I right? We'll see.
Btw people suggested Animal Crossing 3DS which I can really recommend to ANY age, in fact most people who I know love that game are beyond 30. So don't get fooled. Play that little gem! My 3DS was stolen by my daughter so I can't play right now :(
This removes an important element of games: surprise & excitement. "This is cool" is missing often which makes me bored about most games. This isn't bad as I can spot the special things inside a game which are great very fast and easy. Generally it takes like 20 minutes and I can tell you how a game is constructed and how it will progress along. That's usually when I stop playing it.
Rarely a game* will bind me for hours, the most recent one was Dishonored. (*I mean single player games, MMO's are different). I started playing Tomb Raider and while it is an excellent game I was bored within minutes. I knew too many things they were doing including their quick time moments (did I tell you I hate the qt moment thingy which seem to be popular?. Don't get me wrong, Tomb Raider is an excellent game, but not for someone who played as much as I did.
So I am on a mission to find that one game which keeps me occupied for hours. Have suggestions? Let me know.
The whole thing is made worse with the fact that I love online games. As soon as I play a single player game I am missing people. Humans - which I can talk to, play with or against. This is so powerful that most single player games have a hard time to compete. I went as far as saying "Single player games will be niche in 5-10 years" in a talk back 2006 I think. Was I right? We'll see.
Btw people suggested Animal Crossing 3DS which I can really recommend to ANY age, in fact most people who I know love that game are beyond 30. So don't get fooled. Play that little gem! My 3DS was stolen by my daughter so I can't play right now :(
2013/06/06
Bad opinion II
So it continues. It comes around every couple of years that industry professionals claim it is a good idea for Nintendo to get rid of their hardware business and write their games for all platforms. Mario on PS4, iPad etc. They think it is a good idea.
Some things they forget:
Nintendo is a Japanese company. They are patient as an elephant. They don't care if they lost one generation of consoles, hey, its just 5 years.
Nintendo is a rich company. Valued billions, having billions in cash reserve. In fact it is one of the richest companies of Japan.
Mario, Zelda, Pokemon etc are the high value IP's which cause people to buy Nintendo hardware.
Nintendo always innovated the consoles, controllers and systems with Sony & MS following their lead.
Compared to Sony and Microsoft Entertainment Nintendo had profitable console generations. MS did not. Sony did not.
Why should they bother about other platforms? Nintendo often enough stated that they do not see MS or Sony as competitors. They merely see bicycles, girls and TV as competition as they steal entertainment time from their consumers.
German article on Krawall.de mirroring my opinion:
http://www.krawall.de/web/Wii_U/special/id,65290/
And a video / Statement with the same position:
http://www.gametrailers.com/videos/uujebd/the-final-bosman-what-about-nintendo-
Some things they forget:
Nintendo is a Japanese company. They are patient as an elephant. They don't care if they lost one generation of consoles, hey, its just 5 years.
Nintendo is a rich company. Valued billions, having billions in cash reserve. In fact it is one of the richest companies of Japan.
Mario, Zelda, Pokemon etc are the high value IP's which cause people to buy Nintendo hardware.
Nintendo always innovated the consoles, controllers and systems with Sony & MS following their lead.
Compared to Sony and Microsoft Entertainment Nintendo had profitable console generations. MS did not. Sony did not.
Why should they bother about other platforms? Nintendo often enough stated that they do not see MS or Sony as competitors. They merely see bicycles, girls and TV as competition as they steal entertainment time from their consumers.
German article on Krawall.de mirroring my opinion:
http://www.krawall.de/web/Wii_U/special/id,65290/
And a video / Statement with the same position:
http://www.gametrailers.com/videos/uujebd/the-final-bosman-what-about-nintendo-
2013/05/29
June 10th 2013 will be remembered
June 10th will be remembered as the day which changed our (games) industry. June 10th is the day where the key press conference are on E3. Big announcements will be made by Sony and Microsoft for their new consoles.
But.
Apple makes another keynote on June 10th as well. Deliberately placed to compete with the important gaming conference. Readers take note. I warned you.
June 10th 2013. Not a nice date to remember. 06.10.2013 (US) or 10.06.2013. 100613. 061013. Doesn't look nice.
Here is what else happened June 10th in our history: http://www.historyorb.com/day/june/10
But.
Apple makes another keynote on June 10th as well. Deliberately placed to compete with the important gaming conference. Readers take note. I warned you.
June 10th 2013. Not a nice date to remember. 06.10.2013 (US) or 10.06.2013. 100613. 061013. Doesn't look nice.
Here is what else happened June 10th in our history: http://www.historyorb.com/day/june/10
2013/05/23
XBox One Big Brother is watching you
Many things have been said about the epic fail of Microsoft's presentation of their XBox One (and the bad name), but this here basically cuts my interest to buy one in half:
http://www.extremetech.com/gaming/139706-microsofts-new-kinect-patent-goes-big-brother-will-spy-on-you-for-the-mpaa
Yes, this is really a plan. Do you really want Microsoft watching your living room. Really?
http://www.extremetech.com/gaming/139706-microsofts-new-kinect-patent-goes-big-brother-will-spy-on-you-for-the-mpaa
Yes, this is really a plan. Do you really want Microsoft watching your living room. Really?
2013/05/18
Nintendo - again and again
With each transition year the same discussions appear generation after generation - and I can't really hear it anymore: Nintendo is in deep shit and should stop making consoles - instead they should release their core IP's like Mario & Zelda on all other platforms.
WTF.
This is the worst decision they could make. The sole existence of that argument proves that Nintendo should not do it: if you want to play their great games then buy their hardware.
And Nintendo still builds the best console hardware. Microsofts XBox is louder than a vacuum cleaner and red circles all the time. The PS3 is huge, can't be stacked and its only advantage is the Blue Ray.
Nintendo has one weakness they need to learn fast: online. That's where Sony and their PS4 learned very fast - the XBox paved the way but Microsoft screwed it up.
Let's see what may 21st will bring when Microsoft spills their beans.
Only one ting is clear: Nintendo, being 125+ years old, having a market cap others are envious about - has patience like an elephant. If this generation isn't theirs then it might be the next.
NEVER underestimate Nintendo!
WTF.
This is the worst decision they could make. The sole existence of that argument proves that Nintendo should not do it: if you want to play their great games then buy their hardware.
And Nintendo still builds the best console hardware. Microsofts XBox is louder than a vacuum cleaner and red circles all the time. The PS3 is huge, can't be stacked and its only advantage is the Blue Ray.
Nintendo has one weakness they need to learn fast: online. That's where Sony and their PS4 learned very fast - the XBox paved the way but Microsoft screwed it up.
Let's see what may 21st will bring when Microsoft spills their beans.
Only one ting is clear: Nintendo, being 125+ years old, having a market cap others are envious about - has patience like an elephant. If this generation isn't theirs then it might be the next.
NEVER underestimate Nintendo!
2013/05/08
Additional signs of change
EA posted its financial earnings and it disappoints. Without their cash of 1.6b in the bank they would be gone by now. "Don't expect growth on the giants EA and Activision" they say. Ok, so why do others grow like hell. And some new mobile companies have a market cap of 9 billion. Wtf.
Those are all signs of disruption. Its happening and quick. The old games market will change dramatically in the next 2-3 years, so don't moan if your favorite FPS is no longer the #1 topic on the web sites.
Then EA announced they bought the Star Wars license. Oh my. Thanks no, I see what you did to Harry Potter. And fail, major fail: the license excludes online, social and mobile platforms. That deal is like an ancient relic. Fire the guy who did it.
But then its all about small 90 men companies doing more money than the old economy.
So when are you joining?
Those are all signs of disruption. Its happening and quick. The old games market will change dramatically in the next 2-3 years, so don't moan if your favorite FPS is no longer the #1 topic on the web sites.
Then EA announced they bought the Star Wars license. Oh my. Thanks no, I see what you did to Harry Potter. And fail, major fail: the license excludes online, social and mobile platforms. That deal is like an ancient relic. Fire the guy who did it.
But then its all about small 90 men companies doing more money than the old economy.
So when are you joining?
2013/04/07
I was a huge Sony fan
In my younger years I was a huge Sony fan. In the time of Hifi, Walkman and classic Tube TV's Sony was the #1 quality manufacturer, they were the 'Apple' of their time.
Now Sony is in trouble since some years and even the PS3 didn't seem to make Sony happy. Now they announced the PS4 and somehow developers are excited - why?
First: the PS4 is a powerful machine considering its a high end PC but without all the compatibility brakes from Windows PC's. It features 8GB of ultra fast memory. And the graphics card is pretty nice but actually is better than its PC counterparts as games can use it to its full extend without worrying about backwards compatibility of 15 years VGA graphics. It will be actually much faster than comparable PC graphic cards.
But that is not the most important thing, we expect new consoles to be powerful. What is important is that somehow Sony learned from its past mistakes and someone up there at Sony decided to correct all of them.
First Sony announced to make their approval process easier for games - switching to a one step process just like the App store from Apple. For my readers who do not know how the approval process works on XBox360 or PS3 should google it, its a pain in the arse for developers and actually very expensive - impossible to finance by smaller studios.
Speaking about smaller studios: Sony wants to embrace indies (about time!) and is actively seeking them out for partnerships. They also announced the partnership with Unity3d, a good development engine for everyone.
And here is the kicker: usually you need very expensive development kits to create games on consoles, not this time: Unity3d compiles on retail PS4 machines, i.e. everyone owning Unity3d and asking Sony can develop for it and try to get approved. AWESOME.
The future looks suddenly brighter for the next generation of consoles if Microsoft follows Sony's example - from the past news though they seem to screw it up.
And just to make it clear: I play on PS3 - and will order a PS4. I AM a Sony fan!
Update 2013: Sony is back: http://www.engadget.com/2013/05/09/sony-2012-earnings/
Now Sony is in trouble since some years and even the PS3 didn't seem to make Sony happy. Now they announced the PS4 and somehow developers are excited - why?
First: the PS4 is a powerful machine considering its a high end PC but without all the compatibility brakes from Windows PC's. It features 8GB of ultra fast memory. And the graphics card is pretty nice but actually is better than its PC counterparts as games can use it to its full extend without worrying about backwards compatibility of 15 years VGA graphics. It will be actually much faster than comparable PC graphic cards.
But that is not the most important thing, we expect new consoles to be powerful. What is important is that somehow Sony learned from its past mistakes and someone up there at Sony decided to correct all of them.
First Sony announced to make their approval process easier for games - switching to a one step process just like the App store from Apple. For my readers who do not know how the approval process works on XBox360 or PS3 should google it, its a pain in the arse for developers and actually very expensive - impossible to finance by smaller studios.
Speaking about smaller studios: Sony wants to embrace indies (about time!) and is actively seeking them out for partnerships. They also announced the partnership with Unity3d, a good development engine for everyone.
And here is the kicker: usually you need very expensive development kits to create games on consoles, not this time: Unity3d compiles on retail PS4 machines, i.e. everyone owning Unity3d and asking Sony can develop for it and try to get approved. AWESOME.
The future looks suddenly brighter for the next generation of consoles if Microsoft follows Sony's example - from the past news though they seem to screw it up.
And just to make it clear: I play on PS3 - and will order a PS4. I AM a Sony fan!
Update 2013: Sony is back: http://www.engadget.com/2013/05/09/sony-2012-earnings/
2013/02/21
PS4: Managing Expections
The new Playstation has been announced and featuring a 8 Core CPU and PC like graphics card many people think why they should buy a PS4 when they got a high end PC already.
Here is the thing: the games on a PS4 will look better than on your PC, even if your specs are better on paper. Why?
Because on the PS4 you can fully utilize the graphic cards power without worrying about backwards compatibility or performance for small machines. You can go all in. On the PC this is not possible.
Want proof? Ask yourself why most XBox360 games look better than many of today's PC games although the XBox is now 6 years old. The reason becomes obvious.
Another thing you should not forget is that the hardware of the PS4 won't change much in the next few years so devlopers can fully commit to its features in the their pipeline, something which is not possible on the PC. Besides the development cycle of 2 years fits much better to a stable platform than on a moving one like the PC.
In other words the still-stand of PS4 hardware specs for the next 5+ years becomes an advantage, not a disadvantage.
Here is the funny quote on the link above: "The games looked amazing, but we’re skeptical that everything was gameplay. A lot of the videos seemed like target videos, examples of what the developers have in mind, rather than actual working games"
Here is the thing: the games on a PS4 will look better than on your PC, even if your specs are better on paper. Why?
Because on the PS4 you can fully utilize the graphic cards power without worrying about backwards compatibility or performance for small machines. You can go all in. On the PC this is not possible.
Want proof? Ask yourself why most XBox360 games look better than many of today's PC games although the XBox is now 6 years old. The reason becomes obvious.
Another thing you should not forget is that the hardware of the PS4 won't change much in the next few years so devlopers can fully commit to its features in the their pipeline, something which is not possible on the PC. Besides the development cycle of 2 years fits much better to a stable platform than on a moving one like the PC.
In other words the still-stand of PS4 hardware specs for the next 5+ years becomes an advantage, not a disadvantage.
Here is the funny quote on the link above: "The games looked amazing, but we’re skeptical that everything was gameplay. A lot of the videos seemed like target videos, examples of what the developers have in mind, rather than actual working games"
It was gameplay, real time rendering.
2013/01/28
Time runs fast
I can't believe it is only three years ago that Apple announced the iPad. 66 million sold in 2012 alone, the 100th million unit sold in October 2012. The iPad is responsible for the change in computing and even gaming.
It single handily destroyed the Netbook market.
It made the Notebook market suffer.
It changed the gaming market.
Even my boss carries around an iPad 4 now - 24h a day.
Studies show that iPad gaming happens mostly on the couch and in bed. That iPad players are more core than we might think. That iPad gamer has more disposable income. That console gaming time suffers as soon as there is an iPad in the house hold.
And the best as last: the iPad is the only wife compatible gaming device so far.
And it just has started 3 years ago. How will the tablet market look like in 3 more years? The power of the console in your hands on 8 hours battery on a resolution larger than most monitors in your household.
Update, you should follow Asymco for recent data: https://twitter.com/asymco
I didn't know the iPad outsells the iPhone by performance relative from the start. Amazing.
It single handily destroyed the Netbook market.
It made the Notebook market suffer.
It changed the gaming market.
Even my boss carries around an iPad 4 now - 24h a day.
Studies show that iPad gaming happens mostly on the couch and in bed. That iPad players are more core than we might think. That iPad gamer has more disposable income. That console gaming time suffers as soon as there is an iPad in the house hold.
And the best as last: the iPad is the only wife compatible gaming device so far.
And it just has started 3 years ago. How will the tablet market look like in 3 more years? The power of the console in your hands on 8 hours battery on a resolution larger than most monitors in your household.
Update, you should follow Asymco for recent data: https://twitter.com/asymco
I didn't know the iPad outsells the iPhone by performance relative from the start. Amazing.
2013/01/27
Video Games and Age
I owned nearly every console there has been including exotic ones like the MB Vectrex. I noticed that with age comes an inability to play certain games.
It started with first person shooters. I was trained with the mouse on PC using AWDS keys for movement. Using a controller was very alien to me and since Halo I am not used to it nor very skilled. So I stopped playing shooters. A pitty as there are many good ones including Halo, Gears of War etc.
So it happened that a game was released in 2011 my game industry buddies still talk about today. Rarely does this happen. Usually we go on and talk about the latest shiniest new releases. But this game tends to stick around for many - although some of my friends hate it, can't even understand what the fuzz is about.
Of course I talk about Dark Souls.
A game I would love to play but can't. I tried on my PS3 and failed due to controller incompatibility with my hands and brain. Then I had hope that the PC version helps as it supported mouse and keyboard. No, it doesn't help either.
So there it is - the game I would love to play and experience the fascination my friends have - but I can't as my hands simply don't work with the controllers.
So the question I pull out of this is: are controllers like the XBox 360 one coming of age? Is the future generation which is not trained to D-pad, analog sticks and omg 10 buttons dying? Are we forced to play games with touch even if they don't work with touch? Is history repeating itself and genres are not as popular anymore as before simply because they don't work on new formats? (happened to RTS as they don't work on consoles)
It started with first person shooters. I was trained with the mouse on PC using AWDS keys for movement. Using a controller was very alien to me and since Halo I am not used to it nor very skilled. So I stopped playing shooters. A pitty as there are many good ones including Halo, Gears of War etc.
So it happened that a game was released in 2011 my game industry buddies still talk about today. Rarely does this happen. Usually we go on and talk about the latest shiniest new releases. But this game tends to stick around for many - although some of my friends hate it, can't even understand what the fuzz is about.
Of course I talk about Dark Souls.
A game I would love to play but can't. I tried on my PS3 and failed due to controller incompatibility with my hands and brain. Then I had hope that the PC version helps as it supported mouse and keyboard. No, it doesn't help either.
So there it is - the game I would love to play and experience the fascination my friends have - but I can't as my hands simply don't work with the controllers.
So the question I pull out of this is: are controllers like the XBox 360 one coming of age? Is the future generation which is not trained to D-pad, analog sticks and omg 10 buttons dying? Are we forced to play games with touch even if they don't work with touch? Is history repeating itself and genres are not as popular anymore as before simply because they don't work on new formats? (happened to RTS as they don't work on consoles)
2013/01/13
The World will end as we know it - in 2013
I mean the game industry world - the one we are used to. The one with PC games being niche, the one with consoles being the big revenue makers. Where there is only one MMO RPG dominating the world. Where games are usually all around the big IP's of the top publishers - on console.
The major trends which we have seen in 2012 surfacing which will be even stronger in 2013 are:
Crowd Funding
It is an additional source for money. And as most people know in the gaming industry - money is the #1 problem of all developers. So this is an alternative. Not the best, but it is in addition to what we already have. And it also is able to fund games which are under the threshold of publishers - this means single man games, small teams, games with budgets of less then 1 million.
Of course there are the big million budget funded games - but those will be the "AAA" of kick starter. The important thing is not the money or that users decide which games are being made - the important thing is that the industry will see a new source of creativity from that funding. This impulse is desperately needed as otherwise CoD 10 and Fifa 2014 and Halo 5 and xyz 10 are all the same again and again.
Digital Distribution
It took long enough. We had hoped it will happen back in 2000 but the internet bubble bursting destroyed our master plan. Finally digital distribution has a break through and I expect this to quickly push into the console space as well.
There are more games being sold on digital platforms than on retail. Add it up. You will come to the same conclusion. Note I said "most" as in numbers, not in revenue. That will follow. Quickly.
What does this mean? It means retail becomes secondary, not the major platform anymore. The time as we went to stores to get games are over. Amazon does the rest of the death push of retail - but games will be a niche shelf space pretty soon. - if consoles push digital.
'Mobile' as major game space
I put mobile in quotes as studies shows that the main space people play mobile games is the couch or bed - so its not really "mobile". Still Smartphones and iPads will push the games market to bigger segments as even the console market. Even now the mobile market is the only one where western game makers have even access to all Asian markets. Note that consoles don't exist there and most western online games (the only one popular on PC) do not have a single chance of being published there. But hey, now even Asian's play single player games - but on mobile.
Why is Asia so important for mobile? Because it doubles, nearly triples the revenue potential of games on the devices with no major investment. This is huge. The Asian games market is so big that we (in the west) have not even a glimpse of its power.
So will mobile destroy consoles? I think it will push aside handheld gaming as we know it but AAA console games will stay - at least for the next generation. But as more and more developers find it easier to publish on mobile the creativity and cool games might move away from consoles to tablets.
Free to Play
F2p seems saturated 'they' say. I hear that often but always shake my head. F2p has just started and shows some saturation - but only in spaces where big companies are located and all their copy cats - as those copy cats don't know how to enter the f2p market but to copy the lead publishers - and of course fail ;)
Believe me: there are many game genres and types still to be published successfully as f2p as big as League of Legends or even World of Tanks. There is still plenty of space. Want proof? Which publisher would have accepted a Counterstrike type game with World War II tanks and persistent development? NO ONE!
Of course now they say "yes of course it works". But before? Nah, they wouldn't even have gotten an appointment.
So there is lots of space. The primary reason is being online: when you got the world internet population as potential customers it is easier to reach a critical mass to be profitable then in retail or any other publishing platform.
Online - Persistent
Games have shown that if they are online (even if only basic asynchronous) and persistent that the success doubles easily. The recent example of Clash of Clans and Hay Day shows that also on mobile it is a pre-requisite for huge success potential.
So the time of Fantasy MMO RPG's might be over, but hey, the time for online MMO's just has started!
Conclusion
If you want to be on the ride combine all four from above. Do a tablet/PC online persistent crowd funded free to play title.
Cheers, Teut
The major trends which we have seen in 2012 surfacing which will be even stronger in 2013 are:
Crowd Funding
It is an additional source for money. And as most people know in the gaming industry - money is the #1 problem of all developers. So this is an alternative. Not the best, but it is in addition to what we already have. And it also is able to fund games which are under the threshold of publishers - this means single man games, small teams, games with budgets of less then 1 million.
Of course there are the big million budget funded games - but those will be the "AAA" of kick starter. The important thing is not the money or that users decide which games are being made - the important thing is that the industry will see a new source of creativity from that funding. This impulse is desperately needed as otherwise CoD 10 and Fifa 2014 and Halo 5 and xyz 10 are all the same again and again.
Digital Distribution
It took long enough. We had hoped it will happen back in 2000 but the internet bubble bursting destroyed our master plan. Finally digital distribution has a break through and I expect this to quickly push into the console space as well.
There are more games being sold on digital platforms than on retail. Add it up. You will come to the same conclusion. Note I said "most" as in numbers, not in revenue. That will follow. Quickly.
What does this mean? It means retail becomes secondary, not the major platform anymore. The time as we went to stores to get games are over. Amazon does the rest of the death push of retail - but games will be a niche shelf space pretty soon. - if consoles push digital.
'Mobile' as major game space
I put mobile in quotes as studies shows that the main space people play mobile games is the couch or bed - so its not really "mobile". Still Smartphones and iPads will push the games market to bigger segments as even the console market. Even now the mobile market is the only one where western game makers have even access to all Asian markets. Note that consoles don't exist there and most western online games (the only one popular on PC) do not have a single chance of being published there. But hey, now even Asian's play single player games - but on mobile.
Why is Asia so important for mobile? Because it doubles, nearly triples the revenue potential of games on the devices with no major investment. This is huge. The Asian games market is so big that we (in the west) have not even a glimpse of its power.
So will mobile destroy consoles? I think it will push aside handheld gaming as we know it but AAA console games will stay - at least for the next generation. But as more and more developers find it easier to publish on mobile the creativity and cool games might move away from consoles to tablets.
Free to Play
F2p seems saturated 'they' say. I hear that often but always shake my head. F2p has just started and shows some saturation - but only in spaces where big companies are located and all their copy cats - as those copy cats don't know how to enter the f2p market but to copy the lead publishers - and of course fail ;)
Believe me: there are many game genres and types still to be published successfully as f2p as big as League of Legends or even World of Tanks. There is still plenty of space. Want proof? Which publisher would have accepted a Counterstrike type game with World War II tanks and persistent development? NO ONE!
Of course now they say "yes of course it works". But before? Nah, they wouldn't even have gotten an appointment.
So there is lots of space. The primary reason is being online: when you got the world internet population as potential customers it is easier to reach a critical mass to be profitable then in retail or any other publishing platform.
Online - Persistent
Games have shown that if they are online (even if only basic asynchronous) and persistent that the success doubles easily. The recent example of Clash of Clans and Hay Day shows that also on mobile it is a pre-requisite for huge success potential.
So the time of Fantasy MMO RPG's might be over, but hey, the time for online MMO's just has started!
Conclusion
If you want to be on the ride combine all four from above. Do a tablet/PC online persistent crowd funded free to play title.
Cheers, Teut
2012/11/11
Transition Years
If you read my blogs or listen to my talks you know that I held a talk 2001 where I described the 5 year cycle of the industry (PDF link, note: this cycle is longer)
Generally whenever the old console is aging and the new one isn't here yet several things happen:
Some explanation here: most console games are sold to owners who own the console for the 1st year. In other words console sales influence the next 12 months game sales volume. On the other hand: less console sales mean less software sales for that reason. Check current console sales history.
So this causes a dire news coverage and you might take the impression away that we are in deep trouble. In fact we are not - we are in the best state we will be in the next 5 years.
The reason is simple: during that time called 'transitions years' the games industry is most creative and usually comes up with some new toys to play with. In the past transision years we had things like 3d hardware, CD rom, DvD, the internet & team based games and MMO's to drive new categories.
This transition we got smartphone/tablet gaming, or going digital generally which allows even small developers to publish worldwide: basically this fixes the problem #3 above for the next transition years, If the developers are adapting.
Transition years usually cause trouble for publishers or developers who do not adapt or do not want to adapt. It happens all the time as some of those companies start to be comfortable what they do and so they lose the lead.
But listen, we are the gaming industry. We live from innovation, from change, from new technology, from new gadgets and devices or software concepts. If you start to stand still and feel comfortable or want to be, then you are in the wrong industry.
Change is good. And 2013 will be the biggest change for our industry we ever experienced. Exactly that is the reason why I love this industry.
Generally whenever the old console is aging and the new one isn't here yet several things happen:
- Publishers close or fire people
- Publishers take less risk and go conservative (sequels, less 3rd party development)
- Developers close down as they can't sell their pitches to publishers
- Magazines/Media closes as they are dependent on marketing spending
Some explanation here: most console games are sold to owners who own the console for the 1st year. In other words console sales influence the next 12 months game sales volume. On the other hand: less console sales mean less software sales for that reason. Check current console sales history.
So this causes a dire news coverage and you might take the impression away that we are in deep trouble. In fact we are not - we are in the best state we will be in the next 5 years.
The reason is simple: during that time called 'transitions years' the games industry is most creative and usually comes up with some new toys to play with. In the past transision years we had things like 3d hardware, CD rom, DvD, the internet & team based games and MMO's to drive new categories.
This transition we got smartphone/tablet gaming, or going digital generally which allows even small developers to publish worldwide: basically this fixes the problem #3 above for the next transition years, If the developers are adapting.
Transition years usually cause trouble for publishers or developers who do not adapt or do not want to adapt. It happens all the time as some of those companies start to be comfortable what they do and so they lose the lead.
But listen, we are the gaming industry. We live from innovation, from change, from new technology, from new gadgets and devices or software concepts. If you start to stand still and feel comfortable or want to be, then you are in the wrong industry.
Change is good. And 2013 will be the biggest change for our industry we ever experienced. Exactly that is the reason why I love this industry.
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